Response to anyone saying "We can win! I want an election now!"Nlk Nanos is generally accepted as producing the most accurate results amongst the various polls that are conducted. The results of his latest poll indicate that
"B.S., M.A., P.H.D."
"B.S., M.A., P.H.D."
despite continuing announcements of spending by the governing party on the one hand and the opposition party leader having nothing going for him an election now
would in all probability result in another minority government.
The West would remain solidly pro-government. The Atlantic predominantly Liberal. Quebec an increase for the government. Ontario - government seats at risk.
A shift of the undecided in Ontario (17%) and Quebec (21%) and the ridings in which this took place had the election been based on the results of this poll could have led to either of the parties competing to form the government ending up ahead when all results were in.
My view has been that he government party has favoured an election in which they would be returned as a minority or a majority. The majority would be aimed at but another four years in office unless the opposition parties forced an election would be worth while.
As months pass winning with a minority becomes less attractive. Focus has to shift to preparations for when the election will be held next year. The November Policy Conference in Winnipeg has started to be a media focus. This will become more and more so as delegates are selected and should policy directions be discussed.
What could be topics of comment BELOW (30) are directions that are seen as having a positive impact if adopted as policy in November.
There may be local forums underway where this is occurring. The Digest offers one that is nation wide.
Nik on the Numbers
The federal Tories and Liberals continue their neck-and-neck race in the latest Nanos tracking poll completed April 9th, 2008.
Of note, NDP support is down five points nationally since February. Support in Ontario for the Liberals is up and support for the NDP in Ontario is down. Regardless of the Dion leadership perception problems, the past few weeks have seen the Grits win the Ontario by-elections, former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae enter the House and the Lukiwski comments.
It's important to remember, this poll was conducted at a time of media focus on the Lukiwski anti-gay comments made 17 years ago. It's quite possible that some soft Ontario New Democrats have strategically parked with the Liberals to block the Tories.
Tory support is up in the West - no negative fallout from Lukiwski there. The increase in support may also be part of a post by-election halo effect in Saskatchewan and British Columbia.
You can share your views, rate the opinions of others, and ask me questions about this poll or any other issue. Check it out today at www.nikonthenumbers.com.
Polling between April 4th and April 9th, 2008. (Random Telephone Survey of 827 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The Nanos Research Survey of 827 Canadians is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The subset of committed voters is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)
The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed in February, 2008.
Canada (N=827, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 36% (+3)
Conservative Party 36% (+5)
NDP 14% (-5)
BQ 8% (-2)
Green Party 6% (-2)
Ontario (N=251, MoE ± 6.3%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 50% (+7)
Conservative Party 32% (+1)
NDP 13% (-6)
Green Party 6% (-1)
Quebec (N=202, MoE ± 7.0%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 23% (NC)
Liberal Party 23% (+1)
NDP 13% (+1)
Green Party 6% (NC)
The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "Nanos Poll."
Nik Nanos, CMRP
President & CEO
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